Winter 2010 National Weather Outlook
WINTER 2010 TEXT FORECAST
NORTHEAST & M/A:
-Temperatures: I expect temperatures to be slightly to much below normal across the region with the coldest periods in January and February and then another shorter cold spell in March.
-Precipitation: I expect stormier than normal conditions across the region. The southeast ridge will be non-existent and with an active southern branch and the GOM continuing its relentless pattern of flooding the South and The East Coast with saturated air I expect a very wet winter. Snowfall will generally be above average with coastal areas of VA, MD, DE, and NJ at risk or an ice storm. I expect areas across the region to end up with 110-125% of their normal snowfall closer to the lakes and 125-150% elsewhere.
SOUTHEAST AND PLAINS:
-Temperatures: I expect below average temperatures in the southeast and chilly conditions throughout the plains. As you head further north I expect things to warm slightly with cool but not cold conditions.
-Precipitation: I expect a semi-wet winter in this region. 110-125% of normal snowfall can be expected in the southern and central areas while further north 90-100% of normal snowfall can be expected. The Gulf Coast and coastal areas of SC, and NC are at risk of ice storms as well.
SOUTHWEST, PNW, and Upper MW:
-Temperatures: I expect chilly temperatures in the southern regions with milder temps the further north you go and colder temps closer to the GL's.
-Precipitation: Things should be semi-wet in the southern areas but should dry out substantially in the north. Definitely not as snowy as last winter. Areas in the south and central sections are expected to see 70-90% of normal snowfall with areas in the North seeing 75% or lower.
WINTER 2010 FORECAST SUMMARY:
-I expect a weak to BARELY moderate El Nino that will fade.
-I expect the main chunk of winter action to occur in January and February.
-I don't expect the sun to ramp up much.
-I expect a +PNA and a variable neutral to -NAO to dominate the winter.
-I expect an active southern branch of the Jet Stream with a lot of moisture in the south coming in from the GOM.
-Plenty of CAD
-Some overrunning events.
-Quick Autumnal recovery of the Cryosphere.
-Less LES but still enough to bring some areas their average snowfall.
-Mild and dry in the Northwest corner of the country.
-Severe Ice Storms possible in some areas.
-SECS/MECS potential.
NORTHEAST & M/A:
-Temperatures: I expect temperatures to be slightly to much below normal across the region with the coldest periods in January and February and then another shorter cold spell in March.
-Precipitation: I expect stormier than normal conditions across the region. The southeast ridge will be non-existent and with an active southern branch and the GOM continuing its relentless pattern of flooding the South and The East Coast with saturated air I expect a very wet winter. Snowfall will generally be above average with coastal areas of VA, MD, DE, and NJ at risk or an ice storm. I expect areas across the region to end up with 110-125% of their normal snowfall closer to the lakes and 125-150% elsewhere.
SOUTHEAST AND PLAINS:
-Temperatures: I expect below average temperatures in the southeast and chilly conditions throughout the plains. As you head further north I expect things to warm slightly with cool but not cold conditions.
-Precipitation: I expect a semi-wet winter in this region. 110-125% of normal snowfall can be expected in the southern and central areas while further north 90-100% of normal snowfall can be expected. The Gulf Coast and coastal areas of SC, and NC are at risk of ice storms as well.
SOUTHWEST, PNW, and Upper MW:
-Temperatures: I expect chilly temperatures in the southern regions with milder temps the further north you go and colder temps closer to the GL's.
-Precipitation: Things should be semi-wet in the southern areas but should dry out substantially in the north. Definitely not as snowy as last winter. Areas in the south and central sections are expected to see 70-90% of normal snowfall with areas in the North seeing 75% or lower.
WINTER 2010 FORECAST SUMMARY:
-I expect a weak to BARELY moderate El Nino that will fade.
-I expect the main chunk of winter action to occur in January and February.
-I don't expect the sun to ramp up much.
-I expect a +PNA and a variable neutral to -NAO to dominate the winter.
-I expect an active southern branch of the Jet Stream with a lot of moisture in the south coming in from the GOM.
-Plenty of CAD
-Some overrunning events.
-Quick Autumnal recovery of the Cryosphere.
-Less LES but still enough to bring some areas their average snowfall.
-Mild and dry in the Northwest corner of the country.
-Severe Ice Storms possible in some areas.
-SECS/MECS potential.
DJF General Conditions Outlook (Temps/Precip)
DJF Percent of Normal Snowfall
Storm Track Scenarios
Experimental DJF 500mb Height Map
